You, uh, You Gonna Use That?

Grayson

Well, it finally (reportedly) happened, and our beloved Brenner is leaving us (probably) in July, for something called “Udinese Calcio,” what Wikipedia tells me is “a professional Italian football club based in Udine, Friuli-Venezia Giulia, that currently competes in the Serie A.”

It’s here:

It’s about as close to Ljubjana, Slovenia, as it is to Venice, but it does look like a nice city, and I can’t wait to see this thing on Brenner’s Instagram.

But… I come to bury Brenner, not to criticize him. There are certainly no hard feelings, as he came here with the promise of Europe and it looks like that promise is about to be fulfilled. We will always remember what Brenner gave the FC, like the backheel goal against NYCFC that was unfairly taken away, and the nice goal against CF Montreal that was unfairly taken away, and the wonderful strike against Philadelphia Union that was unfairly taken away. But I depress.

As Brenner moves on with his life, so must we. The first step of moving on is figuring out what, exactly, we’re supposed to do with his roster spot. After Brenner leaves, the FC will have an open Young Designated Player spot, as well as a chunk of change from his transfer fee. How Chris Albright chooses to use those resources will have a great impact on the rest of the FC’s season and on its chances for its first MLS hardware.

So… what do we get?

Reporting as of the time of writing indicates that Brenner will fetch an approximately $10 million transfer fee. That’s cash in the FC’s pocket. In addition, as mentioned above, there will be an open Designated Player spot. That spot impacts the rest of the roster as well – if the FC leaves it open, signs another Young Designated Player (one who does not turn 24 or older this calendar year), or signs a senior Designated Player whose cost (amortized transfer fee plus annual salary) is less than the maximum Targeted Allocation Money amount ($1,651,250), then it can also carry up to three players on the roster under the U22 initiative. (U22 initiative allows teams to carry reduced budget charges for certain players who earn less than $651,250 in salary and are 22 or younger through the league year. An additional bonus is their transfer fees do not count against the budget at all.) Alternatively, the FC can sign a senior Designated Player at a higher price, but then it will have only one U22 slot available.

That third U22 slot is actually pretty important. Currently, the FC has two players in U22 initiative spots – Alvaro Barreal and Marco Angulo. Angulo pretty much has to stay in that spot due to his transfer fee, but Barreal’s reported salary is low enough that there might be enough budget space to simply carry him at his salary charge or buy down his salary with some kind of Allocation Money. So arguably, the FC does not need more than one U22 player. However, it’s possible (if not likely) that Albright would like to use the open slot to sign another promising young player, rather than forfeit it entirely.

Another wrinkle here is that outgoing transfer fees can sometimes be converted to General Allocation Money, which helps teams defray budget costs down the roster. Unfortunately, it looks like none of Brenner’s transfer fee can be converted to GAM for two reasons. First, MLS roster rules indicate (with some ambiguity) that a club can only convert transfer or loan fee revenue to GAM to the extent that revenue exceeds the player’s acquisition costs. The FC is taking a loss overall (so far) on Brenner’s transfer fee. Second, less ambiguously, MLS roster rules state that, “[i]n the case of Designated Players, transfer/loan revenue may not be assigned as General Allocation Money.” Ope.

With these parameters, let’s see what the options are for the FC’s new roster flexibility.

Sign a New Young Designated Player Striker

Signing a new YDP striker has a lot of benefits. First, since there are no real restrictions on the spend, it gives us the best chance of finding a replacement as good as or better than Brenner. Second, it lets Chris Albright really flex his muscles, potentially finding a player who not only will help the FC win but is also likely to be sold at a much better price down the road. Third, it allows us to keep that third U22 roster spot and use it on another position of need.

How might that U22 spot be used? Well, those reading this article might have heard of a young Colombian center back named Yerson Mosquera. Mosquera is on loan to the FC from English Premier League club Wolverhampton Wanderers, which purchased him from his Colombian team for 7 million pounds (or 112 million ounces). So far, Mosquera has been everything that could have been hoped for of a young Premier League prospect. He’s a player that the FC would surely love to have for the long term, but any likely transfer fee would put him in Designated Player territory.

Unless… he could be a U22 player? Well, the internet tells me that Mosquera’s salary with Wolves is just about $520,000. To sign him to a U22 initiative spot, the FC would need to both negotiate a purchase price with Wolves and get Mosquera to accept a raise of less than approximately $130,000 a year. Possible, I guess, but not probable.

However, even if Mosquera is not feasible on a U22 deal, this example is illustrative of the kind of addition that the FC could make as long as it keeps that U22 option open. Of course, there’s no guarantee that another young player will pan out, but if Albright wants to stay in the GM business, then he’d better believe in his own ability to identify and acquire good players.

If I had to bet, I would say that FC replaces Brenner by signing another YDP striker, likely from South America. And that that’s not the only significant addition before the season is over.

Sign Mosquera to a Young Designated Player Contract

Alternatively, FC could make both Mosquera and Wolves a kind of Godfather deal they can’t refuse, making Mosquera a Young Designated Player. The third U22 spot (or second and third U22 spot, if they remove the designation from Barreal) would be available for a replacement attacking player. There is a decent track record of Designated Player center backs in MLS, and there is a great argument for using DP spots basically anywhere along the spine. And signing one or two young strikers to U22 deals might very well work out.

But I wouldn’t bet on it. Young strikers are probably the hottest commodity in the global transfer market, and any striker pegged as a likely or even decent bet is probably going to be expensive at both the transfer fee and salary levels. I took a quick look at U22 initiative players around MLS, and the only strikers who actually produced were Dejan Joveljic for Los Angeles Galaxy (11 goals, 3 assists last year) and Jhon Duran for Chicago Fire (8 goals, 5 assists). Many more were relatively unproductive, so it’s not like these players are slam dunks.

But, on the other hand, Duran shows the upside when you actually hit on one of these players, as Chicago sold him to Aston Villa in the Premier League for up to $22 million. (This transfer fee, however, did not reflect any competitive success for Chicago, which finished near the bottom of the East last year.)

Another consideration for the FC is that it’s pretty damn important to hit on Brenner’s replacement, as it’s also likely that Brandon Vazquez will be leaving next offseason. Failing to immediately replace Brenner wouldn’t be as big of a deal with another star striker left in the team, but losing both of them will leave a massive hole in the lineup.

All of these factors considered, and as much as I would like to keep Mosquera around, I really don’t see the FC using the DP spot on anything other than a striker.

Sign a Senior Designated Player

Arguably, the safest move to bring in a productive striker would be to sign a player already proven in a top European league – think about your Romelu Lukaku, Olivier Giroud, or Antoine Griezmann types. Players of that caliber can be expected to walk into an MLS lineup and immediately start lighting up the league (ignore Gonzalo Higuain here). Of course, as mentioned above, the FC would have to go down to only one U22 slot, but that wouldn’t be the end of the world, and it might be worth it for the production.

This would be purely a “win now” move, as these players are near the end of their careers, are unlikely to be with the team for many years, and are not going to fetch any transfer fees. But maybe the team is happy to eat the costs in exchange for a trophy or two. My guess, though, is that Albright thinks he can sign a player who is both an investment in the future and can help the team win immediately.

There is one tweak here though. If the FC finds a striker with no transfer fee and who is willing to make less than the max TAM amount, then you might have the best of both worlds – a plug-and-play stud who doesn’t prevent you from full use of the U22 spots, who also buys you time to fully evaluate potential YDP options in the meantime.

I don’t know who that would be, as I assume any of the players mentioned – and any players of similar caliber – would not be willing to play here on a discount. Maybe Albright and Noonan can sell them on the project, the American lifestyle, and Pepp and Dolores, but I’ll remain skeptical until it happens.

Leave the DP Spot Open Until the Right Player is Found

What would this mean? Sergio Santos (most likely) or Dom Badji (less likely) slots into the starting lineup for the rest of the season, with Quimi Ordonez likely taking on a larger substitute role. FC would continue to add where needed (I think they need center back depth still, even if Mosquera stays) and might even fill any remaining U22 slots, but they would hold out until the next offseason until they find their man.

I actually think this isn’t unlikely, exactly, even though Tom Bogert has speculated that FC plans to make a big splash on Brenner’s replacement and Pat Noonan has hinted that they have spent a decent amount of time evaluating prospects. We just simply haven’t seen Albright move with all that much speed with adding significant players. I don’t think this is a bad thing, exactly, as he has done an incredible job with the players he did bring in. But, on the other hand, center back is an ongoing need for this team, and Albright has only been able to bring in Mosquera (as good as he is) on a short-term basis. Also, a lot of time was spent trying to negotiate Obinna Nwobodo’s transfer down to a TAM deal, but he’s a DP nevertheless. At some point, Albright will need to fill a need quickly, and within budget.

At the end of the day, it would be a major disappointment if the FC lost Brenner in the summer, failed to replace him, and then ended the season yet again without a trophy of any kind. The FC would then go into the offseason likely losing Vazquez as well, with arguably even more uncertainty about the future.

Man, That’s a Lot of Words – What’s Going to Happen?

Like I already said, I think the FC is going to sign a Young Designated Player to replace Brenner in the summer window, and I think that player is going to make us think of Brenner wishing nothing but the best for his career, with absolutely no regrets that he moved on.