Match Preview: FC Cincinnati take on Philadelphia Union on Decision Day
Damon Gumbert
Another MLS regular season is nearing its end as Decision Day comes on Saturday. There’s not much decision-making happening this season, with only four teams fighting for playoff spots. For FC Cincinnati, home-field advantage in the first round of the MLS Cup Playoffs is locked in, with the third seed in the eastern conference clinched for the Orange and Blue. The club has very little to play for when they travel to Philadelphia to take on the Union Saturday, That being said, many decisions await the Knifey Lions as they make another run at the MLS Cup.
To Try or Not To Try
FC Cincinnati sits solidly in the third seed in the Eastern Conference playoff bracket, currently 7 points behind Columbus and 4 points ahead of Orlando City. That means that win, loss, or draw, they will be the third seed on Oct. 25, when the playoffs officially start. Their opponent hasn’t been decided, with the New York Red Bulls, New York City FC, and Charlotte FC all jockeying for positions that could put them in Cincinnati for the first round.
With nothing to play for other than pride and prestige, Head Coach Pat Noonan could continue to rest his players when they travel to Philadelphia this weekend. The Orange and Blue have struggled mightily with injuries this season, already losing Matt Miazga and Nick Hagglund to season-ending injuries, and team captain Luciano Acosta was hobbled for most of August and September with ankle and foot injuries. DeAndre Yedlin, Obinna Nwobodo, Corey Baird, Yamil Asad, and Roman Celentano also missed multiple matches this season with injuries. Not many would fault Noonan for choosing to sit players going into an otherwise meaningless match.
On the flip side, this club has struggled for form lately. Since league play resumed on August 24 the club has given up four goals in the first 10’ of the match. In the eight matches since the Leagues Cup break ended, the defense has given up 14 goals in total. The only worse stretch for the defense this season is the eight matches following the Miazga injury in San Jose, where they gave up 15 goals in that span. Potentially the biggest difference in those stretches was the offensive play. Following the Miazga injury, the team scored 17 goals in eight games, including dropping six on the Supporters Shield-winning Inter Miami. The most recent stretch has seen the club only score 12 goals in eight matches.
Part of that can be placed on the Acosta injury, but the team went out and brought in Nicholas Gioacchini, who has yet to score a goal since joining the club in late August. Yuya Kubo, who entered the Leagues Cup break with nine goals on the season, has only accounted for one goal since league play restarted. Noonan could choose to play the starters as much as possible coming off a two-week layoff and kick-start the vibes going into the playoffs.
Noonan may have given a sneak peek of his plans when talking to reporters Thursday. The reigning MLS Coach of the Year stated that the club is still battling for a spot in the 2025 CONCACAF Champions Cup, meaning that we are very likely to see a full-strength squad this weekend.
FC Cincinnati is currently battling for a guaranteed spot in the Champions Cup with the Seattle Sounders and Real Salt Lake. Inter Miami, Columbus, LAFC, and the LA Galaxy have all qualified for the tournament. Miami secured their position by winning the Supporter’s Shield, Columbus by winning the Leagues Cup, LAFC by both winning the US Open Cup and being the runner-up in the Leagues Cup and the Galaxy by their Supporter’s Shield standings. If FC Cincinnati wins and both Seattle and Salt Lake lose on Saturday they would secure a guaranteed spot in the Champions Cup. If the LA Galaxy hold on to their lead in the Western Conference standings, that would open a second spot for contention between the FCC and the other two clubs. There is a possibility that we could know if FCC clinches a spot in the cup after this weekend, but they will likely need to beat a very game Union for that to happen.
Philly Revival
When FC Cincinnati took on the Philadelphia Union on Juneteenth at TQL Stadium both clubs were in drastically different spots. FCC was fighting Miami for the Supporters Shield lead, having won eight of their last nine matches. Philly was near the bottom of the Eastern Conference, only winning one of their previous 11 matches. The Union brought it to FC Cincinnati, matching them at every turn, until Acosta scored a dagger in the 100’ and propelled The FC to a win.
Most recently, FC and Philly met in the Leagues Cup, with the Union leaving TQL Stadium with a 4-2 victory. FC Cincinnati has only managed to win two matches since that game, while Philadelphia has climbed back into the playoff hunt with resounding victories over RBNY, NYCFC, and DC United. A tie against Atlanta in September could prove to be the difference maker, with both teams seeking a playoff birth on Decision Day.
Philly’s playoff hopes depend on winning their match this weekend against FC Cincinnati, but they also need CF Montreal or DC to lose and either a loss or tie from Atlanta. A draw from Cincinnati would eliminate the Union from playoff contention completely.
Looking ahead
With a playoff spot guaranteed for FC Cincinnati, there is a question of who will they play in the first round. Currently, they are lined up to play Charlotte FC. Charlotte has been a problem for FC Cincinnati this season, forcing a 1-1 tie in the first match in Charlotte before walking into TQL Stadium and bludgeoning FCC 1-3. Charlotte boasts one of the top defenses in the league this season, which could give the Orange and Blue’s struggling offense even more problems.
If Charlotte wins their match against Atlanta United and NYCFC loses to CF Montreal, they would swap in the standings and New York would return to TQL Stadium, where they have not beaten FCC since 2021. A telling fact while potentially heading into a best-of-three series with home-field advantage is that FC Cincinnati and NYCFC have played three times this season, twice in the MLS regular season and once in the Leagues Cup group stage. FCC won two of the three matches, taking both home matches. NYCFC managed a 3-2 victory in a match that was played in New Jersey at Red Bull Arena.
If NYCFC finds themselves in the seventh seed, they will travel to Columbus for a date with a team that has had their number this season. Columbus has won all three meetings against NYCFC this season, including knocking them out of the Leagues Cup in the quarter-finals.
Speaking of Red Bull Arena, if NYCFC wins and Charlotte loses this weekend, the New York Red Bulls would propel themselves for another first-round playoff matchup against FCC. Last season FC Cincinnati knocked off RBNY in the first round, though their entire playoff run suffered after facing the Red Bulls. Matt Miazga was suspended following the penalty shootout that sent RBNY home, a decision that led to his missing the entire rest of the playoffs and the start of this season. This season, RBNY swept FCC in their two matchups, outscoring The FC 5-2 over those two matches.
There is a possibility of a tie in the standings if NYCFC loses and RBNY wins. In that scenario, RBNY would likely jump NYCFC, as the first tie-breaker is Goal Differential (GD). RBNY currently has a GD of 6 while NYCFC has 7. A definitive loss by NYCFC, even if just 1-0, and a definitive win by RBNY, again even by 1-0, would swap their spots, with NYCFC’s GD going down to 6 and RBNY going up to 7. If Charlotte were to win their match, that would put the Red Bulls at TQL Stadium in round one. If Charlotte were to lose or tie, it would place NYCFC in Cincinnati.
Things could be much more interesting if Charlotte loses and RBNY ties as this is the only scenario where NYCFC doesn’t factor into who will play FC Cincinnati in the first round. They would be tied in points at 48, and tied in GD at 6. The next tie-breaker scenario is Goals For (GF). Charlotte sits at 43 GF right now. RBNY has 10 more goals this season, sitting at 53 GF. RBNY would swap places, forcing Charlotte to go to Columbus for a matchup against the reigning MLS Champions.
Charlotte has given Columbus trouble this season, beating the Crew 2-0 at home in March and tying the champs 1-1 in Columbus in July.
A tie or loss by Charlotte and a win by RBNY would move Charlotte down in the standings. A win for NYCFC and a loss for Orlando City would swap those two in the rankings and would swap the location of their first-round matchup from Orlando to New York City.
Unfortunately for the Red Bulls, they face Columbus on Decision Day. Their only previous matchup this season was a 3-0 win for Columbus. If Columbus wins Saturday, they would solidify the Red Bulls for a first-round matchup.
Regardless of who FC Cincinnati plays in the first round, if they can advance to the semi-finals they would likely have an Eastern Conference Finals rematch against Columbus waiting for them.
But for Decision Day, they must stay focused on the Philadelphia Union. That match kicks off at 6:00 p.m. in Philadelphia. Join The Post at Streetside Brewery in the East End before the match as the guys conduct a live Postcast from 4-6 p.m.
